What's New
Gov
McCarthy launched first major GOP gubernatorial TV ad May 2 (six-figure "Lobster Tank" Shark Tank parody across broadcast/cable/connected-TV/digital). Apr 30 debate: 3 of 5 Dems (Pingree, Bellows, Shah) said they would have signed the LD 307 data center moratorium Mills vetoed. WMTW non-scientific viewer poll: Pingree leading, Jackson second
Both
Mills suspended Senate campaign Apr 30 — Schumer/DSCC endorsed Platner. Maine AFL-CIO (40,000 members) endorsed Platner May 1 with "boots on the ground" canvassing commitment. Tim Walz keynoted state convention banquet May 1; Mills attended same banquet but did not endorse Platner. Convention concluded May 2
Senate
Collins voted YES on Iran War Powers Apr 30 — first Republican to break ("the 60-day deadline is not a suggestion; it is a requirement"). Maine AFL-CIO endorsed Platner May 1 with field operation. Polymarket prices Democrats at 73% to win Maine Senate; forecaster ratings consolidate around Toss-Up to Lean Democratic
Latest Polling Snapshot
Dem Primary · Most Recent
Pan Atlantic · Mar 2026 ⭑ Indep.
Shah24%
King III24%
Pingree18%
Bellows16%
Rep Primary · Most Recent
Pan Atlantic · Mar 2026 ⭑ Indep.
Charles26%
Mason11%
Libby8%
McCarthy7%
Status: Both primaries wide open. Dem field clustered — no candidate above 25%. Rep field led by Charles despite being outspent. 44% of Republican voters told Pan Atlantic they were unfamiliar with all candidates. No general election polls published yet. Primary date: June 9, 2026. General: Nov 3, 2026.
⚠️

Primary polls in crowded fields are unreliable. With 5 Democrats and 7 Republicans running, high "not familiar" rates (40–62%), and low overall name recognition, these numbers are directional at best. They show who is known — not necessarily who will win. Treat them as context, not prediction. Maine uses ranked-choice voting in the primary, meaning second and third choices will matter — and no public poll has measured second-choice strength.

Democratic Primary — All Published Polls
Impact Research (Jackson internal)
Mar 19–23, 2026 · LV
INITIAL BALLOT
Shah31%
Jackson18%
Bellows17%
Pingree16%
King III9%
INFORMED BALLOT
Shah26%
Jackson26%
Bellows20%
Pingree14%
King III7%
⚠️ Commissioned by Jackson campaign. "Informed ballot" shows results after voters hear about each candidate — Jackson ties Shah when voters learn more. Source bias applies.
Pan Atlantic Research⭑ Indep.
Mar 5, 2026 · n=810 LV · ±3.7%
Nirav Shah 24%
Angus King III 24%
Hannah Pingree 18%
Shenna Bellows 16%
Troy Jackson 10%
King III rebounds to tie Shah. 44% still say "not familiar" with full field.
UNH Survey Center (Pine Tree)⭑ Indep.
Feb 12–16, 2026 · n=1,162 · ±2.9%
Nirav Shah 25%
Shenna Bellows 19%
Troy Jackson 16%
Hannah Pingree 10%
Angus King III 5%
Undecided 23%
King III collapses vs. prior polls — name-recognition effect fading as others campaign.
Pan Atlantic Research⭑ Indep.
Dec 11, 2025 · n=820 LV · ±3.7%
Nirav Shah 24%
Angus King III 19%
Hannah Pingree 18%
Shenna Bellows 16%
Troy Jackson 8%
Pan Atlantic Research⭑ Indep.
Jun 2025 · n=840 LV · ±3.5%
Angus King III 33%
Shenna Bellows 24%
Hannah Pingree 20%
Troy Jackson 13%
Shah not yet in race. Pingree had not announced. Early field snapshot.
Republican Primary — All Published Polls
Pan Atlantic Research⭑ Indep.
Mar 5, 2026 · n=810 LV · ±3.7%
Bobby Charles 26%
Garrett Mason 11%
Jim Libby 8%
Owen McCarthy 7%
David Jones 6%
Ben Midgley 4%
Jonathan Bush 4%
Most recent public poll. 44% of Republican voters still "not familiar" with full field.
UNH Survey Center (Pine Tree)⭑ Indep.
Feb 12–16, 2026 · n=1,162 · ±2.9%
Bobby Charles 28%
Garrett Mason 12%
David Jones 7%
Ben Midgley 6%
Jonathan Bush 5%
Robert Wessels 4%
Jim Libby 2%
Undecided 31%
Mason's first major poll — enters at 12% with PAC ads already running.
Pan Atlantic Research⭑ Indep.
Dec 11, 2025 · n=820 LV · ±3.7%
Bobby Charles 16%
David Jones 6%
Jonathan Bush 5%
Jim Libby 3%
Owen McCarthy 2%
Mason not yet in race. 49–62% "not familiar" across all candidates.
What the Polls Tell Us
Democrats — Shah leads, but it's genuinely open

Shah has led every public poll since entering in October 2025, but his lead is narrow — rarely more than 6–7 points. The Jackson internal poll shows that when voters learn about all candidates, the race compresses sharply and Jackson ties Shah. Bellows has been remarkably consistent at 16–20% across all polls. Pingree leads in fundraising but has not translated that to polling strength. King III's numbers are volatile — from 33% when he had exclusive name recognition, to tied with Shah or below as the field filled in.

Republicans — Charles leads clearly, Mason is the only real challenge

Charles has led every Republican poll from the first survey through the most recent, growing from 16% to 28%. Mason entered late (January 2026) but immediately polled second at 11–12%, powered by over $2.4M in PAC advertising. Everyone else is in single digits. With 31–44% of Republican voters still undecided or unfamiliar with the full field, the race is less settled than the numbers suggest — but Charles's lead is the most durable in either primary.

The RCV wildcard

Maine's primary uses ranked-choice voting. In a five-person Democratic race where the frontrunner is polling at 24–31%, second and third choices could easily determine the winner. No public poll has measured second-choice preferences — meaning the most important data for predicting the outcome simply doesn't exist yet. In a RCV primary, the candidate with the broadest coalition wins, not necessarily the one with the most first-choice support.

All polls sourced. Updated as new polls are released. Most recent: Impact Research, March 19–23, 2026. Next major poll expected before June 9 primary.

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Maine voters are making two decisions on June 9 that few candidates have addressed together.
The governor controls state-level levers: tax policy, utility regulation, MaineCare administration, zoning, education strategy, and what Maine does with federal money once it arrives. The senator controls federal-level levers: appropriations, Medicaid legislation, offshore wind leasing, healthcare funding, and whether Maine has an Appropriations chair or a freshman minority member. Neither is sufficient alone. The most important policy outcomes for Maine — rural hospital survival, affordable housing construction, energy costs, education quality, economic development — require both levers working in the same direction simultaneously.

Which combination of governor and senator produces the best outcome for Maine? Use the Issue by Issue tab to explore each issue through both lenses.
The Combination Question
Best case for Maine's rural hospitals

A governor who fights aggressively to defend MaineCare at the state level + a senator who can direct federal healthcare dollars through Appropriations. The tension: Collins has that Appropriations power but voted to confirm RFK Jr. A Democratic senator would vote correctly on healthcare but has no committee leverage freshman year.

Best case for energy costs

A governor who regulates CMP/Versant aggressively and deploys renewables (Bellows's 6% rate cap + Pingree's heat pump expansion) + a senator who restores federal offshore wind leasing. Maine's residential electricity rate is roughly 64% above the national average because the grid runs on natural gas — only federal offshore wind policy changes that at scale. The governor can slow the bleeding. The senator can address the root cause.

Best case for rural economic revival

A governor who names and acts on the UMaine mass timber opportunity (Buy Maine procurement, workforce training, state building codes) + a senator who directs federal EDA and USDA dollars to commercialize CLT manufacturing in mill communities. This combination has not featured prominently in either race's published platforms. It is the most concrete rural economic development path available to Maine — and it requires both seats working together.

The Electorate & Maine's Demographics
Maine has approximately 1.07 million registered voters. Unenrolled (independent) voters are the single largest group at roughly 37%, followed by Democrats (~32%) and Republicans (~28%). Maine uses a semi-open primary — unenrolled voters may participate in either party's primary.
Maine ranked 2nd nationally in voter turnout in 2020 (76.2%) and consistently outperforms the national average in midterms. High rural turnout is a structural feature. In 2022, Maine's midterm turnout was approximately 57% vs. a national average of 47%. Ranked-choice voting, adopted in 2016 for primaries and federal races, has increased ballot completion rates.
Maine has the 4th highest veteran population per capita nationally — approximately 9% of adults, concentrated in rural counties. They vote at high rates. 33.6% carry a service-connected disability, nearly double the civilian rate. Veterans in Maine are employed at higher rates and in poverty at lower rates than the general population — but healthcare access and rural economic opportunity remain central concerns.
Maine has four federally recognized Wabanaki Nations — the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, Mi'kmaq Nation, Passamaquoddy Tribe (with communities at Motahkomikuk/Indian Township and Sipayik/Pleasant Point), and Penobscot Nation — with a combined enrolled membership of approximately 8,700 tribal citizens in Maine. Per the 2020 U.S. Census, 7,885 Maine residents identified as American Indian/Alaska Native alone (0.6% of the state population), with an additional 25,617 identifying as Native American in combination with one or more other races — approximately 33,500 total under the broader definition. Tribal populations are concentrated in the three counties with reservations: Washington County (4.5%), Aroostook County (1.5%), and Penobscot County (0.9%) — the same rural counties facing the deepest economic and depopulation pressures in the state.

Unlike the other 571 federally recognized tribes in the United States, the Wabanaki Nations are uniquely subject to state authority under the 1980 Maine Indian Claims Settlement Act. The Passamaquoddy Tribe and Penobscot Nation each have a tribal representative seat in the Maine House of Representatives — a 200-year-old institution predating Maine statehood. These representatives can participate in debate and committee work but cannot cast floor votes. The Penobscot Nation withdrew its representative in 2015 in protest of then-Gov. LePage rescinding a tribal cooperation executive order; the seat remains vacant. The Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians sent a representative back in 2025 for the first time since 2018. The Mi'kmaq Nation has no such seat but pending legislation would create one. Current tribal representative Aaron Dana (Passamaquoddy) sits on the Judiciary Committee and has sponsored sovereignty, online gaming, and tribal governance legislation. For the substantive policy debate this demographic context underpins, see the Bigger Picture section on Tribal Sovereignty.